Energy consumption and income in Chinese provinces: Heterogeneous panel causality analysis
Energy consumption and income in Chinese provinces: Heterogeneous panel causality analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.05.025
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发表时间：
2012-11
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
K. A. Akkemik;Koray Göksal;Jia Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. A. Akkemik;Koray Göksal;Jia Li
最近，中国的能源生产落后于能源消费。这对快速增长的中国经济构成了重大挑战。因此，能源消费与GDP之间的因果关系是一个重要的实证问题。本文利用中国省级数据检验了能源消费与GDP之间的格兰杰因果关系。本文通过考虑面板异质性，扩展了以往研究中采用的格兰杰因果关系分析。具体而言，四种不同的因果关系进行了检查：同质非因果关系（HNC），同质因果关系（HC），异质非因果关系（HNC），和异质因果关系（HEC）。HC和HNC假设在从GDP到能源或从能源到GDP的任一方向上都被拒绝，这意味着中国各省组成的面板不是同质的。然后，异质因果关系检验（HEC和HANC）进行了每个省。从GDP与能源的因果关系来看，19个省份表现出HEC，11个省份表现出HENC。从能源与GDP的因果关系来看，14个省份表现出能源效率高，16个省份表现出能源效率低。研究结果表明，中国政府在制定和实施能源政策时，应纳入区域视角。
Recently, energy production in China fell behind energy consumption. This poses important challenges for the rapidly growing Chinese economy. As a consequence, the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP is an important empirical issue. This paper examines Granger causality between energy consumption and GDP in China using province-level data. The current paper extends the Granger causality analysis employed in previous studies by taking into account panel heterogeneity. Specifically, four different causal relationships are examined: homogeneous non-causality (HNC), homogeneous causality (HC), heterogeneous non-causality (HENC), and heterogeneous causality (HEC). HC and HNC hypotheses are rejected for causality in either direction, from GDP to energy or from energy to GDP, which implies that the panel made up of Chinese provinces is not homogeneous. Then, heterogeneous causality tests (HEC ad HENC) are conducted for each province. For the causality running from GDP to energy, 19 provinces exhibit HEC and 11 provinces exhibit HENC. For the causality running from energy to GDP, 14 provinces exhibit HEC and 16 provinces exhibit HENC. The results suggest that the Chinese government should incorporate a regional perspective while formulating and implementing energy policies.