Design and Analysis of Elimination Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases
Design and Analysis of Elimination Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiz554
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发表时间：
2019-06-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Diggle, Peter J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fronterre, Claudio;Amoah, Benjamin;Diggle, Peter J.
随着被忽视的热带病接近消除状态，有必要制定有效的抽样策略，以确认（或是否）已达到消除标准。这本质上是一项困难的任务，因为随着患病率的降低，患病率估计的相对精度会下降，因此基于随机抽样的经典调查抽样策略需要越来越大的样本量。通过在基于模型的地质统计学框架内利用流行的任何空间相关性，可以获得更有效的调查设计和分析策略。该框架可用于构建预测概率图，使国内决策者了解其消除目标实现的可能性，以及在何处投资进行额外抽样。我们使用加纳淋巴丝虫病的案例研究来评估我们的方法，证明地质统计学方法优于目前用于确定评估单位消除状态的方法。
As neglected tropical diseases approach elimination status, there is a need to develop efficient sampling strategies for confirmation (or not) that elimination criteria have been met. This is an inherently difficult task because the relative precision of a prevalence estimate deteriorates as prevalence decreases, and classic survey sampling strategies based on random sampling therefore require increasingly large sample sizes. More efficient strategies for survey design and analysis can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in prevalence within a model-based geostatistics framework. This framework can be used for constructing predictive probability maps that can inform in-country decision makers of the likelihood that their elimination target has been met, and where to invest in additional sampling. We evaluated our methodology using a case study of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana, demonstrating that a geostatistical approach outperforms approaches currently used to determine an evaluation unit's elimination status.