Precautionary Principle and Robustness for a Stock Pollutant with Multiplicative Risk
Precautionary Principle and Robustness for a Stock Pollutant with Multiplicative Risk
复制标题
具有乘性风险的存量污染物的预警原则与鲁棒性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Fidel Gonzalez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fidel Gonzalez
政策制定者和经济学家对预防原则的兴趣表明了模型不确定性在全球变暖政策中的重要性。我表明，通过强大的控制，政策制定者可以实施预防原则，以规范股票污染物，我分析了预期的稳态污染税，股票和福利的影响。该文件大致包括理论部分和全球变暖政策的应用。我认为：（1）模型的不确定性或减排成本的风险的增加会增加预期的稳态污染税;（2）对于任何水平的模型不确定性，稳健的政策都是首选的，并且这种偏好随着模型不确定性或乘数风险的增加而增加;（3）对于高水平的模型不确定性，引入模型不确定性对预期的稳态污染税和存量的影响相对较小。这些结果主张在存在模型不确定性的情况下，对库存污染物使用稳健的政策。
The interest shown by policy makers and economists in the precautionary principle indicates the importance of model uncertainty in global warming policy. I show that through robust control, policy makers can implement the precautionary principle to regulate a stock pollutant, and I analyze its effect on expected steady state pollution taxes, stocks and welfare. The paper is broadly comprised of a theoretical part and an application to global warming policy. I find that: (1) an increase in either uncertainty about the model or risk about abatement cost increases expected steady state pollution taxes; (2) a robust policy is preferred for any level of model uncertainty and this preference increases for either higher model uncertainty or higher multiplicative risk and (3) the effect on expected steady state pollution taxes and stock of introducing model uncertainty is relatively small for high levels of model uncertainty. These results advocate using robust policies for a stock pollutant in the presence of model uncertainty.