Why Near-Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes
Why Near-Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01506.x
复制
发表时间：
2011-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Cronin, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dillon, Robin L.;Tinsley, Catherine H.;Cronin, Matthew
先前的研究表明，当人们认为某些危险事件的风险较低时，他们不太可能参与减轻潜在危险的活动。我们认为，有一个因素可以不恰当地（从规范的角度）降低人们对危险风险的感知，那就是关于先前险些发生的事件的信息。当一个事件（如飓风）有一定的可能以灾难（生命损失、财产损失）告终，但由于运气的介入而没有发生时，就会发生“未遂事件”。人们似乎把这种好运气误认为是韧性的指标。在我们的第一项研究中，有侥幸信息的人不太可能购买洪水保险，这在普通人群和对风险和自然灾害有特殊兴趣的个人中都得到了证明。在我们的第二项研究中，我们考虑了一个不同的减灾决策，即从飓风中撤离，并改变飓风破坏的统计概率水平。我们仍然发现了对侥幸信息的强烈影响。因此，我们的研究表明，那些经历过类似情况但因机会而逃脱伤害的人，会做出与这种情况的风险比没有经历过的人小的看法一致的决定。最后，我们将讨论风险沟通的含义。
Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near-miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication.