Attribution of 2012 and 2003-2012 rainfall deficits in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia
Attribution of 2012 and 2003-2012 rainfall deficits in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-13-00085.1
复制
发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Chris C. Funk;G. Husak;J. Michaelsen;S. Shukla;A. Hoell;B. Lyon;M. Hoerling;B. Liebmann;Tao Zhang;J. Verdin;G. Galu;G. Eilerts;James D. Rowland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chris C. Funk;G. Husak;J. Michaelsen;S. Shukla;A. Hoell;B. Lyon;M. Hoerling;B. Liebmann;Tao Zhang;J. Verdin;G. Galu;G. Eilerts;James D. Rowland
2012年欧洲夏季的特点是雨量异常，这导致了北欧的洪水和南欧的干旱和野火。这个季节并不是一个孤立的事件，而是一连串夏季的最新事件，其特征是大西洋风暴路径向南移动，正如SNAO负相位所描述的那样。这些特征的年代际变化程度表明了来自动力大气外部的强迫作用，初步数值实验表明，全球海温和北极海冰范围低异常可能起了作用，而北大西洋温暖的海温是一个特殊的促成因素。这些实验不包括温室气体和气溶胶强迫的辐射强迫变化的直接影响，但人为强迫和自然变率都可能影响海温和海冰的变化。
The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes.