Screening long-term variability and change of soil moisture in a changing climate
Screening long-term variability and change of soil moisture in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.059
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发表时间：
2014-08-04
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Verrot, Lucile
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Destouni, Georgia;Verrot, Lucile
土壤水分是景观水分变异和变化的重要组成部分。本文开发了一个概念和分析框架，用于将地表水文气候变化与地下土壤-地下水条件联系起来，并量化气候变化中土壤水分统计的长期发展。土壤水分的评估都在非饱和区和固定的土壤深度，也可能包括一个可变的地下水位。长期的变异性和土壤湿度的变化进行评估的水文气候观测记录，在整个世纪在一个主要的瑞典流域。特别是干燥和潮湿的土壤水分事件的频率进行了调查，为不同的20年的气候周期。结果表明，从世纪开始到20世纪末，干旱事件的频率显著增加。这表明，尽管该地区降水量方面的气象干旱风险有所下降，但水文和农业干旱的风险仍在增加。开发的量化框架也可以用来筛选未来的土壤水分变化情景下预测的气候变化。(C)2014作者由爱思唯尔公司出版
Soil moisture is an essential component of water variability and change in the landscape. This paper develops a conceptual and analytical framework for linking hydro-climatic change at the surface and soil-groundwater conditions in the subsurface, and quantifying long-term development of soil moisture statistics in a changing climate. Soil moisture is evaluated both in the unsaturated zone and over a fixed soil depth that may also include a variable groundwater table. Long-term variability and change of soil moisture are assessed for a hydro-climatic observation record that extends over the whole 20th century in a major Swedish drainage basin. Frequencies of particularly dry and wet soil moisture events are investigated for different 20-year climatic periods. Results show major increase in the frequency of dry events from the beginning to the end of the 20th century. This indicates increased risk for hydrological and agricultural drought even though the risk for meteorological drought, in terms of precipitation, has decreased in the region. The developed quantification framework can also be used to screen future scenarios of soil moisture change under projected climate change. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.