Long-term trends in fish recruitment in the north-east Atlantic related to climate change
Long-term trends in fish recruitment in the north-east Atlantic related to climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2419.2007.00435.x
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Boucher, Jean
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brunel, Thomas;Boucher, Jean
这项研究调查了东北大西洋捕捞鱼类种群的主要补充变化模式与大尺度气候和温度指数之间的时间对应关系。最重要的是了解鱼类种群生产力因应气候变化而可能发生的变化，以设计适当的管理战略。使用标准化主成分分析(PCA)提取了招募变异的主要模式。第一主成分(PC)是长期下降的，并在1987年发生逐步变化。波罗的海、北海、苏格兰以西和爱尔兰海的大多数人口，特别是牛仔，都遵循了这一下降趋势。相反，一些鲱鱼种群和北方生态系统的种群遵循了相反的增长趋势。东北大西洋海温的主导信号也是由主成分分析提取的，它与北半球温度异常的增加高度相关，北半球温度异常被认为是全球变暖的一个指标。招募的第一个组成部分与区域和全球气温的这些变化呈负相关。招募的第二个PC为年代际振荡，与气候指标不相关。对种群招募与当地气温的相关性分析也表明，招募变化的主导模式可能与全球变暖的影响有关。通过分析捕捞死亡率、产卵群生物量与补给量之间的关系，研究了捕捞对补给量的影响，并通过对产卵群生物量的影响来分析。结果表明，捕鱼可能是另一个解释招募趋势的因素，可能与气候的影响结合在一起，但不能单独解释这里发现的招募变化模式。
This study investigates the temporal correspondence between the main patterns of recruitment variations among north-east Atlantic exploited fish populations and large-scale climate and temperature indices. It is of primary importance to know what changes in fish stock productivity can be expected in response to climate change, to design appropriate management strategies. The dominant patterns of recruitment variation were extracted using a standardized principal component analysis (PCA). The first principal component (PC) was a long-term decline, with a stepwise change occurring in 1987. A majority of Baltic Sea, North Sea, west of Scotland and Irish Sea populations, especially the gadoids, have followed this decreasing trend. On the contrary, some herring populations and the populations of boreal ecosystems have followed an opposite increasing trend. The dominant signal in north-east Atlantic sea surface temperature, also extracted by a PCA, was highly correlated with the increase in the Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomaly, which is considered to be an index of global warming. The first component of recruitment was inversely correlated with these changes in regional and global temperature. The second PC of recruitment was a decadal scale oscillation, which was not correlated with climate indicators. The analysis of correlations between population recruitment and local temperature also indicated that the dominant pattern of recruitment variation may be related to an effect of global warming. The influence of fishing on recruitment, via its effect on the spawning stock biomass (SSB), was also investigated by the analysis of correlations between fishing mortality, SSB and recruitment. Results indicate that fishing can be another factor explaining recruitment trends, probably acting in combination with the effect of climate, but cannot explain alone the patterns of recruitment variation found here.