EVALUATING CALCULATED RISK IN GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING
EVALUATING CALCULATED RISK IN GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9410(1984)110:2(143
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发表时间：
1984-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Whitman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Whitman
近年来，人们对应用概率的研究迅速增长，对岩土工程实践应用的兴趣也越来越大。不幸的是，对许多工程师来说，概率仍然是一个谜，部分原因是语言障碍，部分原因是缺乏示例来展示如何在决策过程中使用该方法。以下类型的应用程序进行了描述和说明一般条款：分离系统和随机误差时，评估不确定性的斜坡稳定性;安全因素与液化分析;优化设计的路堤在面对的不确定性有关的稳定性;风险评估的工业设施建立在潜在的可液化土壤;和土坝的风险评估。即使当一个精确的量化失败的概率是不可能的，系统的分析公式，大大有助于了解风险的主要来源，从而指出了成本效益的方式。
Recent years have seen rapidly growing research into applied probability and increased interest in applications to geotechnical engineering practice. Unfortunately, probability still remains a mystery to many engineers, partly because of a language barrier and partly from lack of examples showing how the methodology can be used in the decision‐making process. The following types of applications are described and illustrated in general terms: separating systematic and random errors when evaluating uncertainty in the stability of slopes; safety factors in connection with analysis of liquefaction; optimizing the design of an embankment in the face of uncertainty concerning stability; risk evaluation for an industrial facility built over potentially liquefiable soils; and risk evaluation for earth dams. Even when a precise quantification of probability of failure is not possible, systematic formulation of an analysis aids greatly in understanding the major sources of risk and thus points the way for costeffec...