Marriage delayed or marriage forgone? New cohort forecasts of first marriage for US women
Marriage delayed or marriage forgone? New cohort forecasts of first marriage for US women
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DOI：
10.2307/3088920
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发表时间：
2001-08-01
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
Kenney, CT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldstein, JR;Kenney, CT
最近初婚率的下降是否意味着越来越多的女性将终生单身，或者仅仅是她们将结婚推迟到更大的年龄？我们对20世纪50年代和60年代出生的人群的预测表明，婚姻对美国女性来说几乎是普遍的-接近90%的女性预计会结婚。然而，根据教育程度进行的单独预测揭示了一种新的初婚社会经济模式：在过去，受教育程度较高的女性结婚的可能性较小，而最近的大学毕业生现在预测结婚的层次较高，尽管他们进入初婚的时间较晚。这种教育交叉，在最近的队列中出现在黑人妇女和白色妇女中，表明婚姻越来越成为受教育程度最高的人的领域，这一趋势可能成为后代不平等的新根源。这里提出的预测使用1995年当前人口调查的数据，并比较赫内斯模型与Coale-McNeil模型的估计值。
Do recent declines in first marriage rates signal that an increasing proportion of women will remain single their entire lives, or merely that they are postponing marriage to older ages? Our forecasts for cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960S suggest that marriage will remain nearly universal for American women-close to 90 percent of women are predicted to marry. However separate forecasts by educational attainment reveal a new socioeconomic pattern of first marriage: Whereas in the past, women with more education were less likely to marry, recent college graduates are now forecast to marry at higher levels despite their later entry into first marriage. This educational crossover, which occurs for both black women and white women in recent cohorts, suggests that marriage is increasingly becoming a province of the most educated, a trend that may become a new source of inequality for future generations. Forecasts presented here use data from the 1995 Current Population Survey and compare estimates from the Hernes model with those from the Coale-McNeil model.