Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population
Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population
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DOI：
10.1287/opre.1070.0399
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Larson, Richard C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Larson, Richard C.
这篇“OR 框架论文”的重点是向运筹学 (OR) 界介绍流感大流行及其控制的新数学模型的需求。通过回顾相关历史和文献，出现的一个关键问题涉及人群的异质性如何影响疾病进展。另一个是在模型框架内探索“社交距离”作为疾病进展的情况。控制方法，其中社交距离是指旨在减少日常人与人接触的频率和强度的措施。为了描述易受感染的异质人群的社会接触行为，开发了非同质概率混合模型。根据日常人类接触频率和感染倾向，将易感人群划分为亚组，然后开发出描述疾病日常演变的风格差异方程模型。然后使用这个简单的模型来得出一组初步结果。两个关键发现是（1）该疾病的早期指数增长可能主要由人类接触频率高的易感者主导，并且可能并不表明一般人群对该疾病的易感性；（2）社交距离可能是限制甚至根除该疾病的有效非医疗方法。在将这些初步研究结果应用于实践之前，还需要进行更多以决策为中心的研究。
The focus of this "OR framing paper" is to introduce the operations research (OR) community to the need for new mathematical modeling of an influenza pandemic and its control. By reviewing relevant history and literature, one key concern that emerges relates to how a population's heterogeneity may affect disease progression. Another is to explore within a modeling framework "social distancing" as a disease progression. control method, where social distancing refers to steps aimed at reducing the frequency and intensity of daily human-to-human contacts. To depict social contact behavior of a heterogeneous population susceptible to infection, a nonhomogeneous probabilistic mixing model is developed. Partitioning the population of susceptibles into subgroups, based on frequency of daily human contacts and infection propensities, a stylistic difference equation model is then developed depicting the day-to-day evolution of the disease. This simple model is then used to develop a preliminary set of results. Two key findings are (1) early exponential growth of the disease may be dominated by susceptibles with high human contact frequencies and may not be indicative of the general population's susceptibility to the disease, and (2) social distancing may be an effective nonmedical way to limit and perhaps even eradicate the disease. Much more decision-focused research needs to be done before any of these preliminary findings may be used in practice.