Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia
Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2005.12.002
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发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Asseng, Senthold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ludwig, Fulco;Asseng, Senthold
未来农作物生长的环境将发生变化。二氧化碳浓度[CO2]和气温（7）可能会增加，预计澳大利亚西南部的冬季降雨量将减少。为了能够使作物系统适应不断变化的气候，必须了解气候变化的不同方面如何影响农业生产以及它们如何相互作用。在完全析因设计中，我们研究了更高的温度（2，4和6摄氏度）如何升高[CO2]（525和700 ppm）和五种不同的降雨情景影响小麦产量和谷物蛋白质。气候变化的影响进行了模拟与农业生产系统模拟器（APSIM-Nwheat）使用转换的历史天气数据。在澳大利亚西南部小麦带内的南北样带上，模拟了3种土壤类型50年的产量和籽粒蛋白质浓度，结果表明，气候变化的不同方面对作物系统的影响存在复杂的相互作用。较高的温度，升高[CO2]和降雨量变化的影响一般不是线性的，不同的土壤类型和位置之间的显着差异。更高的[CO2]增加产量，特别是在干燥的网站，而较高的温度有一个积极的影响，在凉爽和潮湿的南部地区。土壤类型之间的主要区别是，较重的粘土最容易受到降雨量减少，而桑迪土壤更容易受到高温。[CO2]升高降低了谷物蛋白质浓度，降雨量减少增加了所有地点的蛋白质水平。在澳大利亚西南部降雨量较高的南部地区，在所有可能的未来气候情景下，产量和毛利率都将增加。在该地区较干燥的部分，降雨量减少15%的负面影响可以通过温度升高2摄氏度和[CO2]浓度升高50%来补偿。然而，由于气候变化影响的非线性，降雨量减少30%不能通过更高的温度和[CO2]来补偿。
The environment in which crops will be grown in the future will change. CO2 concentrations [CO2] and temperatures (7) will probably increase and a decline of winter rainfall is predicted for south-west Australia. To be able to adapt crop systems to a changing climate it is important to know how different aspects of climate change affect agricultural production and how they interact. In a full factorial design we studied how higher T (2, 4 and 6 degrees C) elevated [CO2] (525 and 700 ppm) and five different rainfall scenarios affected wheat yield and grain protein. Effects of climate change were simulated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Nwheat) using transformed historic weather data. Fifty years of yield and grain protein concentrations were simulated for three soil types at different locations on a north-south transect within the wheatbelt of south-west Australia.Simulation results showed that there were complex interactions between different aspects of climate change on crop systems. Effects of higher temperatures, elevated [CO2] and changed rainfall were in general not linear and differed significantly between soil types and location. Higher [CO2] increased yield especially at drier sites while higher temperatures had a positive effect in the cooler and wetter southern part of the region. The main difference between soil types was that heavier clay soils are most vulnerable to reduced rainfall while sandy soils were more vulnerable to higher temperatures. Elevated [CO2] reduced grain protein concentration and lower rainfall increased protein levels at all sites. Higher temperatures could both increase and decrease protein concentrations.In the southern, higher rainfall part of south-western Australia, yield and gross margin will increase for all likely future climate scenarios. In the drier part of the region, negative effects of 15% reduced rainfall can be compensated for by a 2 degrees C increase in temperature and 50% higher [CO2] concentrations. However due to the non-linearity of climate change effects a 30% reduction in rainfall cannot be compensated for by higher temperatures and [CO2] Crown Copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.