A methodology to assess China's building energy savings at the national level: An IPAT-LMDI model approach
A methodology to assess China's building energy savings at the national level: An IPAT-LMDI model approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.046
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Xu, Pengpeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Minda;Yan, Ran;Xu, Pengpeng
国家建筑节能工作在我国建筑节能工作的决策中起着至关重要的作用。影响NBES的因素很多，如技术进步、用户行为等，但大多数因素是无法量化的。沿着这个方向沿着缺少的一个可能性是，目前还没有一种方法可以通过汇总所有驱动因素来计算中国的NBES。为了解决这一问题，本文提出了可比建筑单位面积能耗的概念，并基于扩展版IPAT模型（I = PAT，I = Human Impact，P = Population，A = Affluence，T = Technology）和LMDI分解（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index，LMDI），提出了计算中国NBES的方法。计算结果表明，中国“十五”期间（2001-2005年）、“十一五”期间（2006-2010年）和“十二五”前四年（2011-2014年）的NBES分别为1.65亿吨标准煤、1.58亿吨标准煤和1.27亿吨标准煤。在此基础上，对NBES数据进行了检验，成功地验证了该计算方法的有效性。此外，在将计算出的NBES与官方计划的NBES进行比较后，我们发现中国超过了其BEE目标。在第三阶段（2006-2015年），中国生物质能政策的实施取得了良好的效果。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
National building energy savings (NBES) plays an essential role in policymaking of China's building energy-efficiency (BEE) work. Numerous factors, such as technological progress and users' behavior, affect NBES while most of them are unquantifiable. One missing possibility along this direction is that there is currently no method to calculate China's NBES by summarizing all driving factors. To arrive at a solution, we proposed a concept of comparable building energy consumption per unit area and a method of China's NBES calculation based on an extended version of IPAT model (I = PAT, I = Human Impact, P = Population, A = Affluence, T = Technology) and LMDI decomposition (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, LMDI). Calculation revealed that China's NBES in "The 10th Five Year Plan" period (2001-2005), "The 11th Five Year Plan" period (2006-2010), and the first four years of "The 12th Five Year Plan" period (2011-2014) was 165, 158, and 127 million tce, respectively. Based on these calculation results, we checked NBES data then successfully proved the validity of this calculation method. Furthermore, after comparing the calculated NBES with the official planned NBES, we found that China surpassed its BEE targets. In the third stage of China's BEE work (2006-2015), the implementation of BEE policies obtained good results. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.