Testing a pyroclimatic hypothesis on the Mexico-United States border.
Testing a pyroclimatic hypothesis on the Mexico-United States border.
复制标题
在墨西哥和美国边境测试热气候假设。
DOI：
10.1890/11-1991.1
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
J. Villanueva‐Díaz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Fulé;L. Yocom;Citlali Cortés Montaño;D. Falk;Julián Cerano;J. Villanueva‐Díaz
F. Biondi和同事们提供了一个关于气候和其他控制火灾制度的可测试的期望的基础。这一假设断言，大面积火灾的发生与相关气候指数的值之间存在先验关系。这样的假设提供了根据气候控制预测火灾发生的空间和时间模式的基础。墨西哥-美国边界附近的森林提供了一个测试气候和其他控制措施在生态上相似的山脉中的相对影响的地方，这些山脉受到大致相似的自上而下的气候影响，但具有不同的文化影响。我们测试了火气候假说比较火灾历史信息从梅萨德拉斯瓜卡马亚斯，山脉在西北部奇瓦瓦州，与以前公布的火灾数据从奇瓦瓦山脉，在亚利桑那州东南部，约150公里远。我们开发了一个先验的假设模型的火灾发生，并比较其性能的经验气候为基础的模型。火灾频繁在所有梅萨德拉斯瓜卡马亚斯研究网站通过世纪中期，并继续不间断地到现在在一个网站，在1892年后，在奇利卡瓦山脉的网站几乎完全排除火灾。经验回归模型解释了更高比例的变化与气候相关的火灾制度比先验模型。1892年以后，每个国家的实际气候-火灾关系出现了分歧。先验模型预测，与1892年之前一样，每世纪火灾的发生率仍在继续;墨西哥的火灾确实在继续，尽管火灾制度有所改变，但在美国已经停止，这很可能是由于土地使用的变化。跨界比较证实，频繁的火灾制度可能会在没有气候原因的情况下停止，支持以前的论点，即自下而上的因素，如牲畜放牧，可以迅速和彻底改变地表火灾制度。了解火灾气候控制的历史模式可以为使用历史数据作为生态参考条件和未来的可持续性提供信息。
The "pyroclimatic hypothesis" proposed by F. Biondi and colleagues provides a basis for testable expectations about climatic and other controls of fire regimes. This hypothesis asserts an a priori relationship between the occurrence of widespread fire and values of a relevant climatic index. Such a hypothesis provides the basis for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence based on climatic control. Forests near the Mexico-United States border offer a place to test the relative influence of climatic and other controls in mountain ranges that are ecologically similar and subject to broadly similar top-down climatic influence, but with differing cultural influences. We tested the pyroclimatic hypothesis by comparing fire history information from the Mesa de las Guacamayas, a mountain range in northwestern Chihuahua, with previously published fire data from the Chiricahua Mountains, in southeastern Arizona, approximately 150 km away. We developed a priori hypothetical models of fire occurrence and compared their performance to empirical climate-based models. Fires were frequent at all Mesa de las Guacamayas study sites through the mid-20th century and continued uninterrupted to the present at one site, in contrast to nearly complete fire exclusion after 1892 at sites in the Chiricahua Mountains. The empirical regression models explained a higher proportion of the variability in fire regime associated with climate than did the a priori models. Actual climate-fire relationships diverged in each country after 1892. The a priori models predicted continuing fires at the same rate per century as prior to 1892; fires did in fact continue in Mexico, albeit with some alteration of fire regimes, but ceased in the United States, most likely due to changes in land use. The cross-border comparison confirms that a frequent-fire regime could cease without a climatic cause, supporting previous arguments that bottom-up factors such as livestock grazing can rapidly and drastically alter surface fire regimes. Understanding the historical patterns of climate controls on fire could inform the use of historical data as ecological reference conditions and for future sustainability.