Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana.
Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph10041202
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发表时间：
2013-03-26
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Vance E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alexander KA;Carzolio M;Goodin D;Vance E
腹泻病是一个重要的健康挑战，占全球儿童死亡的大多数。气候变化预计将增加全球疟疾负担，但对气候驱动因素知之甚少，特别是在非洲。使用博茨瓦纳跨越30年（1974-2003年）的健康数据，我们评估了博茨瓦纳卫生设施的患者中的疟疾疾病的月度报告，并将其与气候变量进行了比较。腹泻病例发病率呈双峰周期性模式，在雨季和旱季分别在3月（ANOVA p < 0.001）和10月（ANOVA p < 0.001）达到高峰。在一个月的滞后水平上，报告的腹泻病例数存在很强的正自相关性（p < 0.001）。气候变量（降雨量，最低温度和蒸汽压）预测季节性降水，变量滞后一个月（p < 0.001）。在考虑其他变量后，腹泻病例的发病率在旱季最高，比年平均值平均增加20%（p < 0.001）。我们的分析表明，预测的气候变化温度升高和降水量减少可能会增加旱季疟疾的发病率，炎热，干燥的条件开始得更早，持续时间更长。腹泻病在雨季的发病率可能会下降。我们的研究结果确定了显著的健康-气候相互作用，强调了在博茨瓦纳加强公共卫生重点控制疟疾的必要性。研究结果适用于非洲其他干旱国家，那里的疟疾是一个持续的公共卫生问题。
Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974–2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem.
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影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Alexander, Kathleen A.;McNutt, J. Weldon
通讯作者：
McNutt, J. Weldon
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8.4
作者：
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Bowen, Anna
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12.7
作者：
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Porco, Travis
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
DAKSHINAMURTY, S
影响因子：
5
作者：
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通讯作者：
SIDDIQUE, AK