Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future.
Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future.
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秋天的网虫对欧洲的农业系统有很大的影响。然而，其从北美原生生态位继承的入侵潜力仍然未知。在本研究中，我们分析了欧洲秋季网虫的生态位和范围变化，并将其与北美本土进行了比较。与欧洲相比，北美的秋网虫在欧洲表现出更广泛的生态位和更大的潜在范围。根据欧洲秋网虫从其本土同类遗传而来的入侵潜力，其在欧洲的潜在范围可能是目前的5.5倍。秋季网虫可能更喜欢欧洲的广大地区，不包括挪威、瑞典、芬兰、北俄罗斯、匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚和乌克兰，这些地区可能是秋季网虫未来入侵欧洲的优先区域。秋天的网虫对欧洲的农业系统有很大的影响。然而，它的入侵潜力，继承自其在北美的原生生态位，仍然未知。本文研究了欧洲秋网虫的气候生态位和活动范围的变化，并与北美地区进行了比较，评估了秋网虫在欧洲的入侵潜力。与欧洲的秋网虫相比，北美的秋网虫在更多样化的气候条件下存活，这与它们在欧洲更广泛的生态位和更大的潜在范围密切相关。如果欧洲的秋网虫能够利用从北美继承的原生生态位来适应欧洲的气候条件，那么它们在欧洲的潜在范围将是欧洲引入的生态位的5.5倍。欧洲秋虫的潜在未填补范围主要在欧洲的广大地区，不包括挪威、瑞典、芬兰、北俄罗斯、匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚和乌克兰，这表明，如果没有严格的控制，这些广阔的地区未来可能会被欧洲秋虫入侵。因此，需要严格控制其入侵。考虑到这种入侵昆虫的小生态位变化可能导致大范围的变化，生态位变化比范围变化更能反映入侵风险。
The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential inherited from its native niche in North America remains unknown. In the present study, we analyzed niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America. Compared with those in Europe, the fall webworm in North America showed wider niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. Based on the invasive potential of fall webworm in Europe inherited from its native counterpart, its potential range in Europe could be 5.5-fold that of the current one. The fall webworm may prefer vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, which might be the priority regions for future invasions of the fall webworm in Europe. The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms’ invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.
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影响因子：
0.4
作者：
Beshai, Ryan A.;Barnes, Elizabeth E.;Murphy, Shannon M.
通讯作者：
Murphy, Shannon M.
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Bellard C;Thuiller W;Leroy B;Genovesi P;Bakkenes M;Courchamp F
通讯作者：
Courchamp F
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Broennimann, Olivier;Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.;Guisan, Antoine
通讯作者：
Guisan, Antoine
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Brown JL;Bennett JR;French CM
通讯作者：
French CM
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Bradshaw CJ;Leroy B;Bellard C;Roiz D;Albert C;Fournier A;Barbet-Massin M;Salles JM;Simard F;Courchamp F
通讯作者：
Courchamp F