Diversity of the coupling wheels in the East Asian summer monsoon on interannual timescale: Challenge of summer rainfall forecast in China
Diversity of the coupling wheels in the East Asian summer monsoon on interannual timescale: Challenge of summer rainfall forecast in China
复制标题
年际时间尺度上东亚夏季风耦合轮的多样性：中国夏季降水预报的挑战
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-020-0199-z
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Liu Kai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu Congwen;Liu Boqi;Xu Kang;Jiang Ning;Liu Kai
1979-2015年，东亚夏季风的两类三维环流是决定中国季节降水异常的耦合轮。第一种耦合模态反映了200 hPa上北亚蒙古气旋与青藏高原南亚高压异常的相互作用。第二模态是低层西太平洋异常高压与高空南亚高压通过东南亚上空纬向气流的耦合。这两种模态分别对37年中24年和7年的中国夏季降水异常起作用。然而，热带太平洋，印度洋和北大西洋的海温异常占主导地位，不能解释第一耦合轮的年际变化，说明在中国夏季降水预测的挑战。
Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high (SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upper-level SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel’s interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.