Dividend changes and earnings performance in Japan
Dividend changes and earnings performance in Japan
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日本的股息变化和盈利表现
DOI：
10.1016/s0927-538x(99)00024-4
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Fukuda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Fukuda
本文使用日本数据检验了股利信号假说。研究发现，增加股利的公司在前几年的收益增长，但在随后的几年收益下降。相反的趋势被发现的公司，减少和省略股息。这些结果与假设相反。然而，事件研究的结果表明，市场反应积极（消极）的股息增加（减少）的公告。因此，证据表明，经理人往往是过于乐观或悲观的未来收益时，改变股息，市场往往反应过度的股息变化的消息。
This paper tests the dividend-signaling hypothesis using Japanese data. It is found that firms that increase dividends experience earnings growth in the preceding years but earnings declines in the subsequent years. Just the opposite tendency is found for firms that decrease and omit dividends. These results go against the hypothesis. Nevertheless, the event study results show that the market reacts positively (negatively) to the announcements of dividend increases (decreases). Thus, the evidence indicates that managers tend to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about future earnings when changing dividends, and the market tends to overreact to dividend change news.