Long-Term Earnings Losses Due to Mass Layoffs During the 1982 Recession: An Analysis Using U.S. Administrative Data from 1974 to 2004
Long-Term Earnings Losses Due to Mass Layoffs During the 1982 Recession: An Analysis Using U.S. Administrative Data from 1974 to 2004
复制标题
1982 年经济衰退期间大规模裁员造成的长期收益损失：使用 1974 年至 2004 年美国行政数据的分析
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Joyce M. Manchester
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Till M. von Wachter;Jae Song;Joyce M. Manchester
本文使用社会保障记录中涵盖长达 30 年收入的纵向数据，首次对 1982 年经济衰退期间失业的长期成本进行全国性估计。我们使用包含公司规模的新纵向数据集来隔离在突然大规模裁员期间脱离稳定工作的工人。当我们将失业工人与类似的未失业工人进行比较时，我们发现年收入立即损失了 30%。 15 到 20 年后，这些损失仍然是 20%，因此对工人的终生资源来说是一个重大挫折。我们的估计对于包括行业年或公司年效应在内的其他规范是稳健的，对于先前工作依恋较弱的工人也适用，并且对于我们研究的所有年龄和行业组来说都是强大且持久的。对于 20 世纪 80 年代末复苏高峰时期失业的工人来说，尽管规模较小，但它们仍然是大型且永久性的。我们的估计证实了之前基于美国各州和选定工人样本的研究得出的更大范围的估计。
This paper uses longitudinal data from Social Security records covering up to 30 years of earnings to present the first national estimates of the long-term cost of job displacements during the 1982 recession. We use a new longitudinal data set containing firm size to isolate workers who separate from their stable job during a sudden mass-layoff. When we compare the workers displaced from their jobs to similar non-displaced workers, we find large immediate losses in annual earnings of 30%. After 15 to 20 years, these losses are still 20% and thus represent a significant setback in workers’ life-time resources. Our estimates are robust to alternative specifications including industry-year or firm-year effects, also hold for workers with weak prior job attachment, and are strong and long-lasting for all ageand industry-groups we study. They are still large and permanent, albeit somewhat smaller, for workers displaced at the peak of the late 1980s recovery. Our estimates confirm the larger range of estimates from previous studies based on single U.S. states and selected samples of workers.