Watershed impacts of climate and land use changes depend on magnitude and land use context
Watershed impacts of climate and land use changes depend on magnitude and land use context
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DOI：
10.1002/eco.1870
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发表时间：
2017-10
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
K. Martin;T. Hwang;J. Vose;J. Coulston;D. Wear;B. Miles;L. Band
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Martin;T. Hwang;J. Vose;J. Coulston;D. Wear;B. Miles;L. Band
人类人口增长和城市发展正在影响气候、土地利用和为社会提供的生态系统服务，包括淡水供应。我们调查了土地利用和气候变化对美国北卡罗来纳州亚德金-皮迪河流域水资源的影响。通过将国家土地覆盖数据集与美国林业局森林调查和分析的数据相结合，以高分辨率对代表森林到城市土地利用梯度的三个流域的当前和预测土地利用进行了建模。针对低(B2)和中等高(A1B)变化率的情景，结合多个全球环流模式(MIROC、CSIRO和HADLEY)，对2051-2060年区域土地利用和气候进行了预测，以形成分布式生态水文模型。我们的结果确定了整个研究流域产水量的增加，主要是由于预报的降水量增加。相对于所有土地利用(森林、城市和混合土地)的土地利用变化，气候变化是未来产水量的一个更主要的因素。当土地利用变化较大(27%的林地被转化为城市发展)时，它放大了气候变化对产水量大小和时间的影响。我们对土地利用和气候变化的精细尺度(30米)分布式联合建模方法确定了与管理相关的尺度上的流域水文变化，强调需要进行建模工作，将生物物理(气候)和社会经济(土地利用)变化对未来水资源情景预测的影响结合起来。
Human population growth and urban development are affecting climate, land use, and the ecosystem services provided to society, including the supply of freshwater. We investigated the effects of land use and climate change on water resources in the Yadkin–Pee Dee River Basin of North Carolina, United States. Current and projected land uses were modeled at high resolution for three watersheds representing a forested to urban land use gradient by melding the National Land Cover Dataset with data from the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis. Forecasts for 2051–2060 of regional land use and climate for scenarios of low (B2) and moderately high (A1B) rates of change, coupled with multiple global circulation models (MIROC, CSIRO, and Hadley), were used to inform a distributed ecohydrological model. Our results identified increases in water yields across the study watersheds, primarily due to forecasts of increased precipitation. Climate change was a more dominant factor for future water yield relative to land use change across all land uses (forested, urban, and mixed). When land use change was high (27% of forested land use was converted to urban development), it amplified the impacts of climate change on both the magnitude and timing of water yield. Our fine‐scale (30‐m) distributed combined modeling approach of land use and climate change identified changes in watershed hydrology at scales relevant for management, emphasizing the need for modeling efforts that integrate the effects of biophysical (climate) and social economic (land use) changes on the projection of future water resource scenarios.