Smoking trajectories of adolescent novice smokers in a longitudinal study of tobacco
Smoking trajectories of adolescent novice smokers in a longitudinal study of tobacco
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DOI：
10.1016/j.annepidem.2004.10.002
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发表时间：
2005-07-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Difranza, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Karp, I;O'Loughlin, J;Difranza, J
目得：描述纵向轨迹的吸烟强度在青少年新手smokers和识别预测的轨迹类membership.METHODS：香烟消费369新手吸烟者（平均年龄13岁）进行了测量，平均24个月的后续吸烟发作后。使用潜在类增长模型识别吸烟强度轨迹的类。轨迹类成员的预测因素在多分类logistic regression.RESULTS中被确定：随着时间的推移，个体轨迹中存在相当大的受试者间异质性。确定了四类吸烟强度轨迹：低强度、非进展性吸烟者（72.4%的受试者）以及缓慢、中度和快速自动扶梯吸烟者（分别为11.1%、10.8%和5.7%的受试者）。性别，学习成绩差，有超过一半的朋友谁吸烟在吸烟开始独立预测发展的轨迹模式。逐步上升的轨迹模式与尼古丁依赖和tolerance.Conclusions的早期发展：香烟消费量不会迅速上升的青少年新手吸烟者的四分之三。对于那些吸烟行为迅速升级的新烟民，应尽早进行烟草控制干预，以防止尼古丁依赖和持续吸烟的发展。
PURPOSE: To describe longitudinal trajectories of smoking intensity in adolescent novice smokers and to identify predictors of trajectory class membership.METHODS: Cigarette consumption among 369 novice smokers (mean age 13 years) was measured over a mean 24 months of follow-up after smoking onset. Classes of smoking intensity trajectories were identified using latent class growth modeling. Predictors of trajectory class membership were identified in polytomous logistic regression.RESULTS: There was considerable between-subject heterogeneity in individual trajectories over time. Four classes of smoking intensity trajectories were identified: low-intensity, non-progressing smokers (72.4% of subjects), and slow, moderate, and rapid escalators (11.1%, 10.8%, and 5.7% of subjects, respectively). Gender, poor academic performance, and having more than half of friends who smoke at smoking onset independently predicted development of trajectory pattern. Escalating trajectory patterns were associated with earlier development of nicotine dependence and tolerance.CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette consumption will not escalate rapidly among three-quarters of adolescent novice smokers. Novice smokers who do escalate rapidly should be targeted for early tobacco control intervention to prevent development of nicotine dependence and sustained smoking.