Risk at a turning point
Risk at a turning point
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转折点的风险
DOI：
10.1002/1099-1301(199907/09)1:3
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Stirling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Stirling
在比较风险评估中，人们越来越认识到基本框架假设的内在主观性，以及因此所有有关各方和受影响各方积极参与分析的必要性。尽管如此，在正式的风险政策制定和监管程序中实施这些见解方面仍然存在相当大的惰性。在这里，这个问题似乎经常被视为需要更好的“沟通”和“管理”，以更好的分析，与关注致力于不同的公众观点的分类，以直接利益相关者参与的技术。指出在风险评估的无知和阿罗的不可能性的条件下所构成的基本方法问题，本文件认为，公众参与的分析严谨性，因为它是政治合法性的问题。有人认为，直接的技术，如多标准和敏感性分析，沿着的正式方法，分散投资组合的“风险较小”的选择，可能会在某种程度上解决这些显然棘手的问题。
There is increasing recognition in comparative risk assessment of the intrinsic subjectivity of fundamental framing assumptions and the consequent necessity for active participation in analysis by all interested and affected parties. Despite this, there remains considerable inertia in the implementation of these insights in formal policy making and regulatory procedures on risk. Here, the issue seems as often to be seen as a need for better 'communication' and 'management' as for better analysis, with attention devoted as much to the classification of divergent public perspectives as to techniques for direct stakeholder participation. Pointing to the fundamental methodological problems posed in risk assessment by the conditions of ignorance and Arrow's impossibility, the present paper contends that public participation is as much a matter of analytical rigour as it is of political legitimacy. It is argued that straightforward techniques such as multi-criteria and sensitivity analysis, along with a formal approach to diversification across portfolios of 'less risky' options, may go some way toward addressing these apparently intractable problems.