Testing and Revising the Human Development Sequence Theory using Agent-Based Simulation and Data
Testing and Revising the Human Development Sequence Theory using Agent-Based Simulation and Data
复制标题
使用基于代理的模拟和数据测试和修订人类发展序列理论
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Sumpter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Spaiser;D. Sumpter
基于Agent的建模是从微观机制研究突发宏观现象的一种很有前途的工具。我们提出了一种方法，将社会变革的理论转化为基于数学代理的模型。然后对这些模型进行分析，以确定宏观和微观变量之间的特定关系，使我们能够确定哪些微观机制最能得到现有数据的支持。我们将我们的方法应用于人类发展序列理论，表明尽管该理论得到相关证据的支持，但该理论所述的经济增长、民主和解放的序列与数据并不完全一致。然后，我们使用数据和基于代理的建模提出了几个合理的理论修改，包括精英和经济不平等的作用，这更好地解释了数据。在一般情况下，我们提供了一个框架中，宏观层面的非线性允许推导和测试理论的微观层面的影响经验和正式。
Agent-based modeling is a promising tool for studying emergent macro-phenomena from micro-level mechanisms. We propose a methodology for converting theories about social change into mathematical agent-based models. These models are then analyzed to identify specific relationships between macro and micro variables, allowing us to identify which micro-level mechanisms are best supported by the available data. We apply our method to the human development sequence theory, showing that although the theory is supported by correlational evidence, the sequence of economic growth, democracy and emancipation stated by the theory is not entirely consistent with data. We then use the data and agent-based modeling to propose several plausible modifications of the theory, including the role of elites and economic inequality, which better explain the data. In general, we provide a framework in which macro-level non-linearities allow to derive and test theory's micro-level implications empirically and formally.
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
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影响因子：
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作者：
Nigel Gi lbert;K. G. Troitzsch
通讯作者：
Nigel Gi lbert;K. G. Troitzsch