Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima
Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.12.025
复制
发表时间：
2016-05
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
L. M. Sara;Shazade Jameson;K. Pfeffer;I. Baud
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. M. Sara;Shazade Jameson;K. Pfeffer;I. Baud
利马的环境可持续性受到日益严重的水资源短缺、暴雨事件以及对水资源脆弱性和气候变化情景的关注有限的威胁。在本文中，我们研究了与水有关的灾害风险和脆弱性的知识建设和风险认知如何影响城市治理网络的决策和执行，特别是研究高风险容忍度背后的一些原因，以及在采取适应和/或预防措施方面缺乏决策举措。新形式的大都市治理构建了关于水的空间知识-利用包容性的社区建设进程，解决相关脆弱性问题。这些揭示了水治理中的复杂性、不确定性和空间不平等性，使它们通过制图和空间表示作为社会和政策学习的战略工具而变得可见。本文分析了两个案例研究，它们要么已经是灾害，要么可能成为灾害（水资源建设）。第一，涉及水资源短缺和干旱的长期合理情景，通过Chance 2Sustain研究项目分析人口增长率，水资源分配和消费，并提出空间表示。这些地图被用来确定可能的空间干预优先事项，以应对利马未来的水资源脆弱性。第二，指的是已经表现为泥石流和洪水以及利马东部Chosica的厄尔尼诺现象的短期极端天气事件。我们在大都市规模层面调查了第一个，在弱势社区规模调查了第二个。这些案例说明了反复的空间知识构建，其中发生了风险优先化、标准化和容忍度的过程，以及迄今为止各种行为体的行动，方法使用了集体和反复的制图过程，利用了利马各种治理、专家和从业人员网络的技术、组织和地理知识。其主要成果是通过将不同种类的知识汇集在一起并通过空间表征整合多个维度而产生的社会学习。这提高了人们的认识，增强了应对不确定性的能力，并有助于批准首都气候变化适应战略，但利马市尚未实施。Flyvbjerg，1998年），在这种情况下，知识是有争议的，甚至即使得到承认，也不一定能指导地方社区、当局和私营机构的决策进程。2）将知识构建与风险框架、风险容忍度以及这些因素如何影响决策过程和防灾行动联系起来的现有模式可能会忽视风险容忍度问题，而通过规范化和优先化将其置于危险之中。
Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities affects decision-making and implementation in urban governance networks, specifically looking at some of the reasons behind high levels of risk tolerance and the lack of decision-making initiatives in putting adaptation and/or preventive measures in place.New forms of metropolitan governance have constructed spatial knowledge about water-related vulnerabilities using inclusive scenario-building processes. These unpack complexities, uncertainties and spatial inequalities in water governance, making them visible by mapping and spatial representations as strategic instrument for social and policy learning.This article analyzes two case studies, which either already are or can become disasters (scenario-building). The first, concerns the long-term plausible scenario of water scarcity and droughts analyzing population growth rates, water distribution and consumption through the Chance2Sustain research project and presenting spatial representations. The maps were used to define possible spatial intervention priorities to deal with future water vulnerabilities in Lima. The second, refers to short term extreme weather events that already manifest as mudslides and floods and El Niño in Chosica, eastern Lima. We investigate the first at the metropolitan city scale level and the second at the scale of vulnerable communities. The cases illustrate iterative spatial knowledge construction, in which processes of risk prioritization, normalization and tolerance occur, and the resulting [in-]action by a variety of actors so far.The methodology used collective and iterative mapping processes, using technical, organizational and geographical knowledge from a variety of governance, experts and practitioner networks in Lima. The main outcome is the social learning derived from bringing together different kinds of knowledge and integrating several dimensions through spatial representations. This has raised awareness, increased capacities for dealing with uncertainty and contributed to the approved metropolitan Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, but not implemented by the Lima Municipality yet.The main conclusions are two: 1) spatial planning is a quite political process (c.f. Flyvbjerg 1998), in which knowledge is contested or even when acknowledged, does not necessarily steer decision-making processes, either by local communities, authorities and private institutions. And 2) existing models linking knowledge construction to risk framing, risk tolerance and how these influence decision-making processes and actions to prevent disaster may ignore the issues of risk tolerance, through normalization and prioritization at their peril.