Predicting delirium in elderly patients: Development and validation of a risk-stratification model
Predicting delirium in elderly patients: Development and validation of a risk-stratification model
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/ageing/25.4.317
复制
发表时间：
1996-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Lavan, JN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
OKeeffe, ST;Lavan, JN
谵妄是老年人急性疾病常见而严重的并发症。本研究的目的是开发和验证一种模型，用于预测老年住院患者在入院时没有谵妄的谵妄发展。急性老年病房的连续入院患者每48小时进行一次标准化认知评估。根据DSM-3标准诊断谵妄。采用逐步logistic回归分析确定100例患者的衍生组中谵妄的独立预测因子;预测模型包括痴呆、严重疾病和血清尿素升高。该模型在84例患者的验证组中表现良好。我们的结论是，老年医疗患者可以分层，根据他们的风险发展谵妄使用一个简单的临床模型。
Delirium is a common and serious complication of acute illness in elderly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for predicting development of delirium in elderly medical inpatients who did not have delirium on admission. Consecutive admissions to an acute geriatric unit underwent standardized cognitive assessment every 48 hours. Delirium was diagnosed according to DSM-3 criteria. Independent predictors of delirium in a derivation group of 100 patients were determined using stepwise logistic regression analysis; the predictive model comprised dementia, severe illness and elevated serum urea. This model performed well in a validation group of 84 patients. We conclude that elderly medical patients can be stratified according to their risk for developing delirium using a simple clinical model.