When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?
When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?
复制标题
何时何地可以在英国河流中检测到气候变化？
DOI：
10.1029/2006gl027552
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
R. Wilby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Wilby
Mann-Kendall 统计数据用于调查自 1860 年代以来英国 15 个盆地的均匀降雨量和河流流量记录的趋势。然后探索季节性和年度流量的趋势强度和检测时间之间的关系。此处显示，在广泛假设的气候变化情景下，英国夏季河流流量的预期趋势在典型的规划范围内（2020 年代）很少可察觉。即使气候驱动的变化可能已经发生，可部署资源的损失也必须早在统计上可检测到之前就纳入长期水计划。这些见解不应成为不采取行动的借口，而应为环境监测、气候变化检测和适应等更复杂的方法提供信息。
The Mann‐Kendall statistic is used to investigate trends in homogeneous rainfall and river flow records since the 1860s for 15 basins in the UK. The relationship between the strength of trend and detection time is then explored for seasonal and annual flows. Here it is shown that, under widely assumed climate change scenarios, expected trends in UK summer river flows will seldom be detectable within typical planning horizons (the 2020s). Even where climate driven changes may already be underway, losses in deployable resources will have to be factored into long‐term water plans long before they are statistically detectable. Rather than an excuse for inaction, such insights should inform more sophisticated approaches to environmental monitoring, climate change detection and adaptation.