The physically-based model BREHOMES and its use in deriving scenarios for the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of the UK housing stock
The physically-based model BREHOMES and its use in deriving scenarios for the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of the UK housing stock
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DOI：
10.1016/s0301-4215(97)00130-4
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发表时间：
1997-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
LD Shorrock;JE Dunster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
LD Shorrock;JE Dunster
本文介绍了一个基于物理的模型的能源使用的住房存量（称为BREHOMES），并解释了它是如何被用来开发两种方案的能源使用和二氧化碳排放量。该模型的一般结构与它所依赖的数据一起概述。这些数据是多年来系统收集的，因此可以确定重要的趋势。这些历史趋势构成了使用该模型制定的假设情景的基础。其中一种情景（本文称为参考情景）代表了如果目前的趋势继续下去可能发生的情况。另一种情景（称为“效率情景”）是指如果能源效率措施的采用率提高到过去认为可行的水平，可能发生的情况。这两种设想都没有试图考虑引进新技术的影响。一切都是基于目前行之有效的技术。因此，效率情景相对于参考情景的节约是对与当前趋势相比可能实现的节约的保守估计。结果表明，到2020年可能节省约250 PJ/年（约2100万吨CO2/年）。成本效益分析表明，对于低于11%的所有贴现率，这些节省都具有成本效益。
This paper describes a physically based model of the energy use of the housing stock (called BREHOMES) and explains how it has been used to develop two scenarios for energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. The general structure of the model is outlined together with the data on which it relies. These data have been systematically collected for several years, and this allows the important trends to be identified. These historical trends form the basis of the scenarios that have been developed using the model. One of the scenarios (called the Reference scenario in this paper) represents what is likely to happen if current trends continue. The other (called the Efficiency scenario) represents what could happen if the uptake rates of energy efficiency measures were to increase to levels that are feasible in so far as they have been seen to occur in the past. Neither scenario attempts to consider the effects of new technologies being introduced. Everything is based on current well-tried technology only. Thus, the savings of the Efficiency scenario relative to the Reference scenario are conservative estimates of what should be possible compared to current trends. The results indicate that savings of about 250 PJ year−1(around 21 million tonnes CO2year−1) are possible by 2020. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that these savings are cost-effective for all discount rates below 11%.