Modelling SARS-COV2 Spread in London: Approaches to Lift the Lockdown
Modelling SARS-COV2 Spread in London: Approaches to Lift the Lockdown
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jinf.2020.05.037
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
28.2
通讯作者：
Abubakar, Ibrahim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gosce, Lara;Phillips, Andrew;Abubakar, Ibrahim
目的：使用数学模型预测英国伦敦解除封锁后的流行病学影响，以及为英国政策提供信息的替代策略。方法：建立伦敦SARS-CoV2传播的数学模型。该模型使用报告病例、死亡人数、接触者和流动性的数据进行参数化，以分析英国首都的疫情。我们调查了多种非药物干预措施(NPI)以及这些措施的组合对未来COVID-19发病率的影响。结果：在受影响地区的疫情早期立即采取行动可以控制传播。虽然延长封锁非常有效，但其他措施，如保护老年人口、普遍检测和口罩，都可能有助于减少感染和死亡。然而，根据目前的证据，这些措施似乎不太可能像继续封锁一样有效。为了在5个月内实现消除和解除封锁，最好的策略似乎是每周普遍检测、接触者追踪和使用口罩相结合，并同时封锁。与继续封锁相比，这种方法有可能将死亡人数减少48%。结论：在封锁期间联合使用非营利机构，如普遍检测、接触者追踪和口罩使用，将使死亡和感染最少。这一办法需要高吸纳率和持续的当地努力，但它可能是可行的，因为可能导致在相对较短的时间范围内消除。(C)2020年英国感染协会。爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK.Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19.Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone.Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale. (C) 2020 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.