Dynamic model of activity-type choice and scheduling
Dynamic model of activity-type choice and scheduling
复制标题
活动类型选择与调度的动态模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Axhausen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Cirillo;K. Axhausen
本文提出了一个模型，选择活动类型和时间，结合动态调度，估计在六周的旅行日记。研究的主要焦点是纳入过去的活动参与历史及其对当前活动选择的影响。采用的计量经济学公式，明确说明了相关性的替代品和国家的依赖。结果表明，行为变量是上级的社会经济变量和相关模式的替代品的考虑明显提高了模型的拟合。这是第一个但重要的贡献，改变目前的静态需求模型为动态活动为基础的。其他多周旅行调查的可用性以及最近在先进的计量经济学技术方面取得的进展应鼓励将这项研究转移到不同的区域或模型规模。
This paper presents a model for the choice of activity-type and timing, incorporating the dynamics of scheduling, estimated on a six-week travel diary. The main focus of the study is the inclusion of past history of activity involvement and its influence on current activity choice. The econometric formulation adopted, explicitly accounts both for correlation across alternatives and for state dependency. The results indicate that behavioral variables are superior to socio-economic variables and that consideration of the correlation pattern over alternatives clearly improves the fit of the model. This is a first but significant contribution to changing the current static demand models into dynamic activity based ones. The availability of other multi-week travel surveys and the progress made recently on advanced econometric techniques should encourage the transferability of this study to different regions or model scale.