Dynamics, interactions and delays of the 2019 Ridgecrest rupture sequence
Dynamics, interactions and delays of the 2019 Ridgecrest rupture sequence
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-023-05985-x
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发表时间：
2023-05
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Taufiq Taufiqurrahman;A. Gabriel;Duo Li;T. Ulrich;Bo Li;S. Carena;A. Verdecchia;F. Gallovič
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Taufiq Taufiqurrahman;A. Gabriel;Duo Li;T. Ulrich;Bo Li;S. Carena;A. Verdecchia;F. Gallovič
观测的困难和地震物理学的复杂性使得地震危险性评估在很大程度上是经验性的。尽管越来越高质量的大地测量，地震和实地观察，数据驱动的地震成像产生了明显的差异，解释所有观察到的动态复杂性的物理模型是难以捉摸的。在这里，我们提出了数据同化的三维动态破裂模型的加州的最大的地震在20多年来：矩震级（Mw）6.4 Searles谷和MW 7.1里奇克雷斯特序列，破裂的非垂直准正交共轭断层系统的多个部分。我们的模型使用超级计算来寻找两次地震之间的联系。我们用地震物理解释了强震、地震、野外测绘、高速率全球定位系统和空间大地测量数据集。我们发现，区域结构，环境的长期和短期应力，动态和静态断层系统的相互作用驱动的超压流体和低动摩擦是共同的关键，以了解动态和延迟的序列。我们证明，一个联合的物理为基础的和数据驱动的方法可以用来确定复杂的断层系统和地震序列的力学时，协调密集的地震记录，三维区域结构和应力模型。我们预见，基于物理学的大型观测数据集的解释将对未来的地质灾害缓解产生变革性的影响。
The observational difficulties and the complexity of earthquake physics have rendered seismic hazard assessment largely empirical. Despite increasingly high-quality geodetic, seismic and field observations, data-driven earthquake imaging yields stark differences and physics-based models explaining all observed dynamic complexities are elusive. Here we present data-assimilated three-dimensional dynamic rupture models of California’s biggest earthquakes in more than 20 years: the moment magnitude (Mw) 6.4 Searles Valley andMw7.1 Ridgecrest sequence, which ruptured multiple segments of a non-vertical quasi-orthogonal conjugate fault system. Our models use supercomputing to find the link between the two earthquakes. We explain strong-motion, teleseismic, field mapping, high-rate global positioning system and space geodetic datasets with earthquake physics. We find that regional structure, ambient long- and short-term stress, and dynamic and static fault system interactions driven by overpressurized fluids and low dynamic friction are conjointly crucial to understand the dynamics and delays of the sequence. We demonstrate that a joint physics-based and data-driven approach can be used to determine the mechanics of complex fault systems and earthquake sequences when reconciling dense earthquake recordings, three-dimensional regional structure and stress models. We foresee that physics-based interpretation of big observational datasets will have a transformative impact on future geohazard mitigation.