Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection
Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection
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DOI：
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
T. Yasuda;S. Nakajo;Sooyoul Kim;H. Mase;N. Mori;K. Horsburgh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Yasuda;S. Nakajo;Sooyoul Kim;H. Mase;N. Mori;K. Horsburgh
本研究评估东亚热带气旋(台风)未来风暴潮风险。最先进的大气环流模式(GCM)输出被用作模拟与预测的气候变化相关的风暴潮的驱动力。通过与最佳路径观测资料的对比，验证了西北太平洋GCM热带气旋(TC)特征的重现性，并对未来台风变化进行了预测。对东亚地区进行了风暴潮模拟，其中日本沿海嵌套区域最好。使用极值统计确定了具有指定重现期的最大风暴潮高度的概率。我们表现出对未来强风暴潮变化的强烈区域依赖性。
The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges.