Multi-domain analysis of photovoltaic impacts via integrated spatial and probabilistic modelling
Multi-domain analysis of photovoltaic impacts via integrated spatial and probabilistic modelling
复制标题
通过集成空间和概率建模对光伏影响进行多领域分析
DOI：
10.1049/iet-rpg.2014.0374
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
R. Gottschalg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Rowley;P. Leicester;D. Palmer;P. Westacott;C. Candelise;T. Betts;R. Gottschalg
取而代之的是：目前，大规模实施光伏技术的影响是根据额定容量、能源产出或投资回报等指标进行评估的。然而，随着光伏市场的成熟，需要考虑其他影响(如输配电基础设施或社会经济因素)，以评估与特定政策目标相关的大规模光伏的潜在成本和收益。本研究描述了一种通过贝叶斯技术集成概率分析的混合地理信息系统时空建模方法，以评估光伏发电的多尺度/多领域影响。首先，提出了一种利用基于地理信息系统的动态内插的广域太阳能资源建模方法，并讨论了改进对电网的影响分析的意义。在此基础上，对电网容量受限地区的光伏配置进行了基于地理信息系统的分析，并分析了具体政策实施对光伏普及率空间分布的影响。最后，应用贝叶斯概率图形模型对高渗透率下家庭光伏的社会经济影响进行了评估。综上所述，结果表明，综合时空概率评估支持对光伏影响的多领域分析，从而为决策者提供了一种工具，以促进纳入不同利益相关者视角的深思熟虑和系统的循证决策。
replace with: Currently, the impacts of wide-scale implementation of photovoltaic (PV) technology are evaluated in terms of such indicators as rated capacity, energy output or return on investment. However, as PV markets mature, consideration of additional impacts (such as electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure or socio-economic factors) is required to evaluate potential costs and benefits of wide-scale PV in relation to specific policy objectives. This study describes a hybrid GIS spatio-temporal modelling approach integrating probabilistic analysis via a Bayesian technique to evaluate multi-scale/multi-domain impacts of PV. First, a wide-area solar resource modelling approach utilising GIS-based dynamic interpolation is presented and the implications for improved impact analysis on electrical networks are discussed. Subsequently, a GIS-based analysis of PV deployment in an area of constrained electricity network capacity is presented, along with an impact analysis of specific policy implementation upon the spatial distribution of increasing PV penetration. Finally, a Bayesian probabilistic graphical model for assessment of socio-economic impacts of domestic PV at high penetrations is demonstrated. Taken together, the results show that integrated spatio-temporal probabilistic assessment supports multi-domain analysis of the impacts of PV, thereby providing decision makers with a tool to facilitate deliberative and systematic evidence-based policy making incorporating diverse stakeholder perspectives.
影响因子：
8.7
作者：
Cherrington, R.;Goodship, V.;Kirwan, K.
通讯作者：
Kirwan, K.
DOI：
10.1177/0309133311422977
发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Haines-Young, Roy
通讯作者：
Haines-Young, Roy
影响因子：
9
作者：
Hamilton, Ian G.;Steadman, Philip J.;Lowe, Robert
通讯作者：
Lowe, Robert