Lifetime and five-year age-specific risks of first and subsequent osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women
Lifetime and five-year age-specific risks of first and subsequent osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women
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DOI：
10.1007/s001980170152
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Prince, RL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doherty, DA;Sanders, KM;Prince, RL
我们研究了脆性骨折的发生率在澳大利亚妇女50岁及以上使用马尔可夫过程与蒙特卡洛模拟。终生风险以及首次和随后临床诊断为骨质疏松部位骨折的风险根据年龄、养老院入住率和死亡率进行估计。髋部和脊柱骨折单独评估，肱骨、前臂、手腕、肋骨、骨盆、小腿（不包括股骨近端）和胫骨/腓骨骨折联合评估。该模型预测了42。在50岁的女性中，1%的人在其剩余的一生中至少会发生一次骨折，其中一半的人预计会发生多次骨折。终生持续髋部骨折、临床脊柱骨折和其他骨折的风险分别为17.0%、9.6%和30%。这些部位发生多发骨折的风险分别为19.5%、39.7%和35.7%。预计首次骨折的女性比例从55岁以下人口的1.9%上升到49岁。占89岁以上女性的1%55岁以下女性的5年骨折风险从2.8%增加到89岁及以上女性的61.6%。首次骨折后发生新骨折的风险增加，导致多发骨折的负担相当大。
We examined the incidence of fragility fractures in Australian women 50 years of age and over using a Markov process with Monte Carlo simulations. The lifetime risks and the risks of sustaining first and subsequent clinically diagnosed fractures at osteoporotic sites were estimated according to age, nursing home entry and mortality rates. Hip and spine fractures were evaluated individually and fractures of humerus, forearm, wrist, ribs, pelvis, upper leg (excluding proximal femur) and tibia/fibula were considered in combination. The model predicted that 42. 1% of women aged 50 years will sustain at least one fracture in their remaining lifetime, of whom half are expected to sustain multiple fractures. The lifetime risks of sustaining hip, clinical spine and other fractures were 17.0%, 9.6% and 30. 4%, with the risks of multiple fractures at these sites estimated at 19.5%, 39.7% and 35.7% respectively. The proportion of women expected to sustain their first fracture increased from 1.9% of the population under 55 years of age up to 49. 1% of women over 89 years of age. The 5-year age-specific risks of sustaining any subsequent fractures increased from 2.8% of women under the age of 55 years to 61.6% for women age 89 years and over. The increased risks of new fractures following a first fracture lead to a considerable burden of multiple fractures.