VI. METHODOLOGY OF THE UNITED NATIONS POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS
VI. METHODOLOGY OF THE UNITED NATIONS POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS
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六．
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Krzysztof Kulakowski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Stauffer;Krzysztof Kulakowski
联合国官方估计和预测的每一次新修订的编制都涉及两个不同的过程：（a）纳入关于世界每个国家或地区过去人口动态的所有新的相关信息;（B）对生育率、死亡率和国际移徙的未来走向作出详细假设。为了确保一致性和可比性，必须采取某些步骤。对新的资料进行评价，以确定对基准年（预测开始的年份）人口年龄和性别结构产生影响的人口动态的最新变化。用于进行这一评价的方法必须在技术上适当，并得到一致应用。关于预测期，已就生育率和死亡率今后的走向制定了一般准则。然而，特别是在关于未来趋势的假设方面，在两种情况下，各国普遍偏离一般准则：（a）当最近的趋势表明一国人口尚未准备好走上《一般准则》所确定的道路时，就必须在目前的动态与《一般准则》所体现的动态之间设立一个过渡期，和（B）某些国家的人口可能长期偏离准则规定的道路，如艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行率高的国家。
The preparation of each new revision of the official estimates and projections of the United Nations involves two distinct processes: (a) the incorporation of all new and relevant information regarding the past dynamics of the population of each country or area of the world, and (b) the formulation of detailed assumptions about the future paths of fertility, mortality and international migration. In order to ensure consistency and comparability, certain steps must be taken. New information is evaluated to determine recent changes in population dynamics that have an impact on the age and sex structure of the population at the base year (the year when the projection starts). The methods used to carry out this evaluation must be technically appropriate and consistently applied. With respect to the projection period, general guidelines are established regarding the paths that fertility and mortality are to follow in the future. However, especially with respect to assumptions about future trends, country-specific deviations from the general guidelines are common under two sets of circumstances: (a) when recent trends suggest that the population of a country is not yet ready to embark on the path determined by the general guidelines, a transition period between current dynamics and those embodied in the general guidelines has to be introduced, and (b) when the populations of certain countries are likely to experience a long-term deviation from the paths set by the guidelines, as is the case for countries where the prevalence of HIV/AIDS is high.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Wilmoth, JR;Deegan, LJ;Horiuchi, S
通讯作者：
Horiuchi, S