Exploring ecosystem service issues across diverse knowledge domains using Bayesian Belief Networks
Exploring ecosystem service issues across diverse knowledge domains using Bayesian Belief Networks
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DOI：
10.1177/0309133311422977
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Haines-Young, Roy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haines-Young, Roy
对人与自然之间关系的分析是复杂的，因为它涉及汇集来自一系列学科的见解，而且在涉及利益攸关方时，还涉及不同利益群体的观点和价值观。虽然有人建议，分析-审慎的办法可能有助于处理其中一些复杂问题，但方法的制定仍处于早期阶段。在围绕生态系统服务概念展开的辩论中尤其如此，在这一辩论中，需要以决策者能够了解的方式综合生物物理、社会和经济方面的见解。本文借鉴案例研究，研究使用贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）作为一种手段，实施分析审议的方法，映射生态系统服务和模拟情景的结果。它还探讨了它们作为代表个人和群体价值观的工具的用途。有人认为，当与地理信息系统技术BBN允许绘图和建模方法迅速开发和测试，在一个有效的和透明的方式，他们是一个宝贵的工具，建立自己的社区。案例研究材料还表明，BBN可以支持多标准形式的审议分析，可以用来捕捉利益相关者的意见，使不同的观点可以进行比较，并确定共同的社会价值观。
The analysis of the relationships between people and nature is complex, because it involves bringing together insights from a range of disciplines, and, when stakeholders are involved, the perspectives and values of different interest groups. Although it has been suggested that analytical-deliberate approaches may be useful in dealing with some of this complexity, the development of methods is still at an early stage. This is particularly so in relation to debates around the concept of ecosystem services where biophysical, social and economic insights need to be integrated in ways that can be accessed by decision-makers. The paper draws on case studies to examine the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) as a means of implementing analytical-deliberative approaches in relation to mapping ecosystem services and modelling scenario outcomes. It also explores their use as a tool for representing individual and group values. It is argued that when linked with GIS techniques BBNs allow mapping and modelling approaches rapidly to be developed and tested in an efficient and transparent way, and that they are a valuable scenario-building tool. The case-study materials also show that BBNs can support multicriteria forms of deliberative analysis that can be used to capture stakeholder opinions so that different perspectives can be compared and shared social values identified.