Transmission Probabilities and Reproduction Numbers for Sexually Transmitted Infections with Variable Infectivity: Application to the Spread of HIV Between Low- and High-Activity Populations
Transmission Probabilities and Reproduction Numbers for Sexually Transmitted Infections with Variable Infectivity: Application to the Spread of HIV Between Low- and High-Activity Populations
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具有可变传染性的性传播感染的传播概率和繁殖数量：应用于低活跃人群和高活跃人群之间的艾滋病毒传播
DOI：
10.1080/08898480903251538
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
M. Artzrouni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Artzrouni
对于在特定时间和时间内通过性行为由多个伙伴关系传播的感染，提供了传播概率和继发病例数。应用于人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的结果取决于一个函数，该函数捕获了每次性交行为传播概率对疾病发作时间和死亡时感染持续时间的依赖性。生殖数量是从一个异质性人口组成的低和高活动的男性和女性。该系统的基本再生数R0的表达式揭示了并发的作用，对伙伴关系的时间，和桥接效应。一个高活跃度的群体，无论桥接效应有多小，只要不是0.只有当桥接效应完全消除时，低活动组的生长因子才能独立于高活动组的情况而减少。客户和性工作者之间的关系的作用和桥梁的作用，在撒哈拉以南非洲地区的人口进行了评估。
Probabilities of transmission and numbers of secondary cases are given for an infection which is transmitted sexually by individuals engaged in multiple partnerships with specified durations and timings. The results applied to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) hinge on a function which captures the dependence of the per coital act probability of transmission on the time since disease onset and on the duration of infection at death. Reproduction numbers are derived in a heterogeneous population consisting of low- and high-activity men and women. An expression for the basic reproduction number R 0 of this system sheds light on the role of concurrency, on the timing of the partnerships, and on bridging effects. A high-activity group can cause a significant epidemic outbreak no matter how small the bridging effect, as long as it is not 0. Only if the bridging effect is eliminated altogether can the growth factor in the low-activity group be reduced independently of what happens in the high-activity group. The role of the relationship between client and sex worker and the role of bridging populations in sub-Saharan Africa are assessed.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Wawer, MJ;Gray, RH;Quinn, TC
通讯作者：
Quinn, TC