Decreasing precipitation occurs in daily extreme precipitation intervals across China in observations and model simulations
Decreasing precipitation occurs in daily extreme precipitation intervals across China in observations and model simulations
复制标题
观测和模型模拟显示中国每日极端降水区间降水量减少
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-020-05120-w
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Shuang Ma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lei Wang;Wen J. Wang;Haibo Du;Zhengfang Wu;Xiangjin Shen;Shuang Ma
极端降水对气温升高的响应不仅包括极端降水频率和强度的变化，还包括极端降水间隔（EPIV）和相邻日极端降水间隔（EPIP）降水量的变化。这些变化尚未在观测或气候模式模拟中得到充分评估，尽管它们对了解极端降水的变化非常有用。利用中国669个气象站近50年的逐日降水资料和19个CMIP5模式在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的模拟结果，研究了EPIV和EPIP的变化。我们发现，在过去的50年中，全国平均每年的EPIV增加，而每年的EPIP显着下降。下降的主要地区有西南地区、华东地区和东南地区。在国家和区域尺度上，从2006年到2100年，RCP8.5情景下的年均EPIV和EPIP的下降幅度大于RCP4.5情景下的下降幅度。年EPIP与极端降水强度的相关性强于EPIV。全国年平均EPIP与西太平洋副热带高压面积指数呈显著正相关。蒙古西部和西太平洋500 hPa高度场的异常以及日本海和西太平洋雨季海温的异常将导致中国年EPIV和EPIP的异常。该研究可为洪水预报、水资源管理和防灾减灾提供参考。
Extreme precipitation response to increasing temperature includes not only changes of frequency and intensity, but also changes of extreme precipitation interval (EPIV) and the precipitation during the neighboring daily extreme precipitations interval (EPIP). These changes have not been fully evaluated yet in observations or climate model simulations although they are very useful to understand variations of extreme precipitation. We used daily precipitation data from 669 meteorological stations during the past five decades across China and projections of 19 general circulation models from CMIP5 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios to investigate variations of EPIV and EPIP. We found the national average annual EPIV increased across China during the last five decades, while annual EPIP significantly decreased. The decreases mainly occurred in southwest China, east China, and southeast China. At national and regional scales, the average annual EPIV and EPIP showed greater decreases under the RCP8.5 scenario than those under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100. Annual EPIP showed a stronger correlation with extreme precipitation intensity than EPIV. The national average annual EPIP had a significant positive correlation with the Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index. The abnormal geopotential heights over western Mongolia and the western Pacific at 500 hpa as well as the abnormal SSTs in Japan Sea and the western of Pacific in rainy seasons would result in abnormal annual EPIVs and EPIPs in China. This study may provide references for flooding prediction, water resources management, and disaster prevention and mitigation.