The lifetime social cost of autism: 1990-2029
The lifetime social cost of autism: 1990-2029
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rasd.2019.101502
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Walker, Stephen J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cakir, Janet;Frye, Richard E.;Walker, Stephen J.
这项疾病成本分析计算了美国50个州与自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）相关的终生社会成本的基线和未来估算值。对自闭症谱系障碍的病例数量进行了估算，然后乘以同行评审文献中确定的年度直接和间接医疗及非医疗成本。然后，根据预计每种成本类型产生的年数对这一金额进行推断，以计算1990 - 2019年美国每个州的终生总成本，并预测2020 - 2029年的未来成本。从1990年到2019年，估计新增了200万例自闭症谱系障碍病例，社会成本超过7万亿美元。如果未来十年自闭症谱系障碍的患病率保持不变，预计将新增100万例病例，给美国带来4万亿美元的额外社会成本，然而，如果患病率的增长速度持续下去，到2029年成本可能达到近15万亿美元。自闭症谱系障碍的经济负担是巨大的，确定自闭症谱系障碍的可改变原因有可能带来切实的益处。
This cost of illness analysis computes a baseline and future estimate of lifetime social costs associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) for the 50 states in the United States (US). The number of cases of ASD are estimated, then multiplied by annual direct and indirect medical and non-medical costs identified in the peer-reviewed literature. This amount is then extrapolated across the number of years each cost type is expected to be incurred to calculate a total lifetime cost for each state in the US from 1990-2019, and to project future cost for 2020-2029. From 1990-2019, there have been an estimated 2 million new cases of (ASD), with social costs of more than $7 trillion. If the future prevalence of ASD remains unchanged over the next decade, there will be an estimated additional 1 million new cases, resulting in an additional $4 trillion to the United States in social costs, however if the rate of increase in prevalence continues, costs could reach nearly $15 trillion by 2029. The financial burden of ASD is significant and identifying the modifiable causes of ASD has the potential to provide tangible benefits.