Is There a Relationship between Potential and Actual Skill?
Is There a Relationship between Potential and Actual Skill?
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-13-00287.1
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发表时间：
2014-06-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Chen, Mingyue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kumar, Arun;Peng, Peitao;Chen, Mingyue
本文讨论了实际技能和潜在技能之间可能的联系。实际技能是指当预测时间序列与观测值进行验证时作为验证，而完美技能是指当观测验证时间序列被预测集合中的一个成员取代时。本文认为：（1）潜在技能与实际技能之间不一定存在关系;（2）潜在技能不一定总是大于实际技能，相反的例子也可以找到;及（iii）有方法可将预测异常的统计特性与观测中的对应值进行比较，关于潜在技能和实际技能之间的（正）差距作为“改进空间”的有效性的推论可以得到更好的证实。
In this paper, possible connections between actual and potential skill are discussed. Actual skill refers to when the prediction time series is validated against the observations as the verification while perfect skill refers to when the observed verification time series is replaced by one of the members from the ensemble of predictions. It is argued that (i) there need not be a relationship between potential and actual skill; (ii) potential skill is not constrained to be always greater than actual skill, and examples to the contrary can be found; and (iii) there are methods whereby statistical characteristics of predicted anomalies can be compared with the corresponding in the observations, and inferences about the validity of the (positive) gap between potential and actual skill as "room for improvement" can be better substantiated.