Aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity deduced from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition
Aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity deduced from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition
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从末次盛冰期到全新世过渡推导出的气溶胶辐射强迫和气候敏感性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
U. Lohmann
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文献类型：
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作者：
P. Chylek;U. Lohmann
本文利用东方冰芯的温度、二氧化碳、甲烷和尘埃浓度记录，推导了末次盛冰期至全新世过渡期的气溶胶辐射强迫及其气候敏感性。我们的分析的一个新特点是使用约42 KYBP（千年前）和LGM之间的冷却期，以提供对气溶胶辐射强迫的约束。我们发现，在末次盛冰期到全新世过渡期间，气溶胶辐射强迫的变化为3.3 ± 0.8 W/m2，气候敏感性在0.36和0.68 K/Wm−2之间，平均值为0.49 ± 0.07 K/Wm−2。这表明，由于大气中CO2浓度加倍，1.3至2.3 K之间变暖的可能性为95%。ECHAM 5模式模拟表明，末次盛冰期期间的气溶胶光学厚度可能几乎是目前数值的两倍（从0.17增加到0.32）。
We use the temperature, carbon dioxide, methane, and dust concentration record from the Vostok ice core to deduce the aerosol radiative forcing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to Holocene transition and the climate sensitivity. A novel feature of our analysis is the use of a cooling period between about 42 KYBP (thousand years before present) and LGM to provide a constraint on the aerosol radiative forcing. We find the change in aerosol radiative forcing during the LGM to Holocene transition to be 3.3 ± 0.8 W/m2 and the climate sensitivity between 0.36 and 0.68 K/Wm−2 with a mean value of 0.49 ± 0.07 K/Wm−2. This suggests a 95% likelihood of warming between 1.3 and 2.3 K due to doubling of atmospheric concentration of CO2. The ECHAM5 model simulation suggests that the aerosol optical depth during the LGM may have been almost twice the current value (increase from 0.17 to 0.32).