Tools for Comparative Analysis of Alternatives: Competing or Complementary Perspectives?
Tools for Comparative Analysis of Alternatives: Competing or Complementary Perspectives?
复制标题
替代方案比较分析的工具：竞争还是互补的观点？
作者：
P. Hofstetter;J. Bare;J. Hammitt;Patricia A. Murphy;Glenn E. Rice
第三代环境政策制定和风险管理将越来越多地实施环境措施，这可能会引发对反补贴风险的分析。因此，对与决策备选方案相关的所有风险进行全面分析，将有助于决策者确定替代方案的优先次序，从而有效地降低目标风险和反补贴风险。从石头被扔进池塘引发的涟漪这个比喻开始，我们确定了10种类型的涟漪，在我们的案例中，这些涟漪象征着值得更仔细研究的风险：直接、上游、下游、意外风险、职业风险、抵消行为造成的风险、可支配收入的变化、宏观经济变化、自然资源枯竭以及对人造环境的风险。分析这些风险的工具是独立开发的，最近已被应用于重叠的应用领域。这表明，要么应将这些工具联系在一个统一的框架内进行比较分析，要么应更好地了解单一工具的适当应用领域。本文的目标是为理解可用工具的性质和覆盖范围创造更好的基础，并找出剩余的差距。这些工具都不是为应对所有10种风险而设计的。提供的数据表明，在已确定的10种风险中，与可支配收入变化有关的风险可能特别重要，因为决策备选办法对可支配收入的影响不同。最后，目前的分析仅限于分析性问题，没有考虑到决策过程本身的重要作用。
A third generation of environmental policy making and risk management will increasingly impose environmental measures, which may give rise to analyzing countervailing risks. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of all risks associated with the decision alternatives will aid decisionmakers in prioritizing alternatives that effectively reduce both target and countervailing risks. Starting with the metaphor of the ripples caused by a stone that is thrown into a pond, we identify 10 types of ripples that symbolize, in our case, risks that deserve closer examination: direct, upstream, downstream, accidental risks, occupational risks, risks due to offsetting behavior, change in disposable income, macro‐economic changes, depletion of natural resources, and risks to the manmade environment. Tools to analyze these risks were developed independently and recently have been applied to overlapping fields of application. This suggests that either the tools should be linked in a unified framework for comparative analysis or that the appropriate field of application for single tools should be better understood. The goals of this article are to create a better foundation for the understanding of the nature and coverage of available tools and to identify the remaining gaps. None of the tools is designed to deal with all 10 types of risk. Provided data suggest that, of the 10 types of identified risks, those associated with changes in disposable income may be particularly significant when decision alternatives differ with respect to their effects on disposable income. Finally, the present analysis was limited to analytical questions and did not capture the important role of the decision‐making process itself.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
TENGS, TO;ADAMS, ME;GRAHAM, JD
通讯作者：
GRAHAM, JD
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Smith, JP
通讯作者：
Smith, JP