Intimate partner violence in Madrid: a time series analysis (2008-2016)
Intimate partner violence in Madrid: a time series analysis (2008-2016)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.05.007
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Diaz, Julio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sanz-Barbero, Belen;Linares, Cristina;Diaz, Julio
目的：本研究分析了不同的亲密伴侣暴力（IPV）指标是否存在时间模式，旨在获得能够预测这些时间序列行为的模型。单变量自回归移动平均模型被用来分析对应于016电话IPV专线的每日呼叫数量和在此期间在马德里社区提交的每日警察报告数量的时间序列2008-2015.结果：2008年1月-2012年4月，016电话IPV热线的日呼叫量呈下降趋势，2012年4月-2015年12月，016电话IPV热线的日呼叫量呈上升趋势。每日IPV警察报告数量的趋势在统计上没有显着变化。IPV警方报告的数量在周末和圣诞节假期增加。周一，拨打016 IPV帮助热线的电话数量有所增加。使用2008年至2015年的数据，单变量自回归移动平均模型预测64.2%的电话016电话IPV专线和73.2%的警察报告提交在2016年期间在社区的马德里。结论：我们的研究结果表明，需要增加警察和司法资源在非工作日。此外，016电话IPV专线在工作日应该特别活跃。(C)2018爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Purpose: This study analyzes whether there are time patterns in different intimate partner violence (IPV) indicators and aims to obtain models that can predict the behavior of these time series.Methods: Univariate autoregressive moving average models were used to analyze the time series corresponding to the number of daily calls to the 016 telephone IPV helpline and the number of daily police reports filed in the Community of Madrid during the period 2008-2015. Predictions were made for both dependent variables for 2016.Results: The daily number of calls to the 016 telephone IPV helpline decreased during January 2008 -April 2012 and increased during-April 2012-December 2015. No statistically significant change was observed in the trend of the number of daily IPV police reports. The number of IPV police reports filed increased on weekends and on Christmas holidays. The number of calls to the 016 IPV help line increased on Mondays. Using data from 2008 to 2015, the univariate autoregressive moving average models predicted 64.2% of calls to the 016 telephone IPV helpline and 73.2% of police reports filed during 2016 in the Community of Madrid.Conclusions: Our results suggest the need for an increase in police and judicial resources on nonwork days. Also, the 016 telephone IPV helpline should be especially active on work days. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.