Relation between temperature and suicide mortality in Japan in the presence of other confounding factors using time-series analysis with a semiparametric approach
Relation between temperature and suicide mortality in Japan in the presence of other confounding factors using time-series analysis with a semiparametric approach
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DOI：
10.1007/s12199-010-0163-0
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Ono, Masaji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Likhvar, Victoria;Honda, Yasushi;Ono, Masaji
本研究使用时间序列分析和半参数法，对日本的气温与自杀死亡率的关系进行了分析，并使用广义相加模型，对1972 ~ 1995年日本各地区自杀死亡率的日波动与最高气温的关系进行了分析。该模型控制时间趋势、季节、选定的气象参数、星期几和假日。调整的基础上使用惩罚样条和决定的平滑量是基于最小化的无偏风险估计标准。结果表明，自杀死亡率在日本有一个季节性的特点，它每年都有变化，与最高的发生在4月，以及在一周的上半部分，特别是在周一和周二。至于星期几，只有星期六和假日的自杀案件很少。我们发现，在日本的所有地区，当温度升高时，自杀死亡率在同一天增加（滞后= 0）。自杀方法的分析表明，当温度升高时，只有暴力自杀的死亡率显着增加。其他方法的关系模式尚不清楚。这项研究表明，温度升高对日本的自杀死亡率有短期影响。
The objective of this study was to assess the relation between temperature and suicide mortality in Japan using time series analysis with a semiparametric approach.We analyzed the relation between daily fluctuations in suicide mortality and maximum temperatures for all regions in Japan over the period of time from 1972 to 1995 using a generalized additive model. The model controls for the time trend, season, selected meteorological parameters, day of the week, and holiday. Adjustment was based using penalized splines and the decision on the amount of smoothness was based on minimizing the unbiased risk estimation criterion.The results show that suicide mortality in Japan has a seasonal character and it varies from year to year, with the highest occurrence in April, as well as in the first part of the week, especially on Mondays and Tuesdays. As for the day of the week, there were only few suicide cases on Saturdays and holidays. We found that for all regions in Japan when temperature increased the suicide mortality increased on the same day (lag = 0). Analysis by method of suicide showed that when temperature increased mortality significantly increased only for suicide by a violent method. The pattern of the relation for other methods remained unclear.This study suggests that an increase in temperature has a short-term effect on suicide mortality in Japan.