Spatio-temporal patterns of diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico
Spatio-temporal patterns of diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268811000562
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
McCormick, B. J. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alonso, W. J.;Acuna-Soto, R.;McCormick, B. J. J.
墨西哥儿童的腹泻死亡率在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代急剧下降，同时死亡高峰从夏季转移到秋冬。以前尚未研究过这些模式的空间动力学。我们首先描述整个墨西哥儿童腹泻死亡率的季节性特征，然后描述各个州的儿童腹泻死亡率。虽然近年来没有发现腹泻死亡率的地理梯度，但我们发现死亡率峰值时间存在明显的空间模式。 20 世纪 80 年代，夏季死亡率高峰最早出现在墨西哥首都周围，随后出现在东南部和西北部各州。我们的结果表明，这些年度波浪的方向和时间与月平均降水量和日平均气温有关。近年来，随着夏季高峰的减弱，这种模式已经瓦解。
Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn-winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatric diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico as a whole, then across individual states. While no geographical gradients in the magnitude of diarrhoeal mortality rates have been detected in recent years, we identified a distinct spatial pattern in the timing of peak mortality rate. In the 1980s the summer peak mortality was earliest around Mexico's capital and later in states to the southeast and northwest. Our results suggest that the direction and timing of those annual waves are related to the mean monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature. This pattern has disintegrated in recent years as the summer peak has diminished.