Which way forward for East Asian regional integration? - CGE Model Analysis
Which way forward for East Asian regional integration? - CGE Model Analysis
复制标题
东亚区域一体化何去何从？
DOI：
10.24006/jilt.2009.7.2.002
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Min Ha Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Inkyo Cheong;Min Ha Lee
在东亚地区自2009年以来同步发展的各种不同模式中，本文选择了东盟+3、东盟+6和APEC三条主要路径，运用CGE模型定量考察亚洲区域化的经济影响。本文证实了以往的研究结果，如经济影响的大小与成员规模成正比，以及所有贸易集团内部都存在贸易转移效应。在建立的CGE基础模型上，随后的韩美FTA和韩欧FTA的实施进一步验证了中心辐制在东亚的效应。综上所述，模拟结果表明，贸易安排的经济影响在很大程度上取决于主体经济对参与国贸易的依赖程度。研究还发现，这些影响与主题国与枢纽国和枢纽目的地国的应计贸易差额成正比。由于东亚地区对美国的依存度较高，韩美自由贸易协定比韩欧自由贸易协定的影响力更大，所以研究范围被限制在东亚地区，因此可能有些夸张。然而，在验证上述发现的研究过程中，同时采用了GTAP 6和GTAP 7，因此，中国加入WTO对全球贸易体系的经济影响也得到了实证证明。
Among various distinctive formulations that have been developed simultaneously in East Asia as of 2009, this paper selected three major paths, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and APEC, to quantitatively examine the economic impacts of Asian regionalization with the CGE model. This paper confirmed previous findings such as the magnitude of economic impact being proportional to the size of membership and the existence of trade diversion effect within all trade blocs. The subsequent KORUS and Korea-EU FTA imposition upon the built CGE base models further verified the effects of hub-and-spoke-ism in East Asia. Jointly, the simulation results implied that the economic impacts of a trade arrangement heavily depend on the subject economy’s reliance on trade with the participating states. It was also found that the impacts were directly proportional to the accrued trade balance of the subject spoke country with both the hub state and the hub-destination. This could have been exaggerated as the scope of this study was limited to East Asia where KORUS FTA was found to be more influential than Korea-EU FTA due to its exceptionally high reliance on the US. On the course of this research to verify the aforementioned findings, however, both GTAP 6 and 7 were adopted, and hence, the economic impacts of China’s accession to the WTO in the global trade system were also empirically proven.