Mobility Change and COVID-19 in Japan: Mobile Data Analysis of Locations of Infection.
Mobility Change and COVID-19 in Japan: Mobile Data Analysis of Locations of Infection.
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DOI：
10.2188/jea.je20200625
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发表时间：
2021-06-05
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nagata S;Nakaya T;Adachi Y;Inamori T;Nakamura K;Arima D;Nishiura H
随着COVID-19疫情蔓延，日本政府于2020年4月7日宣布7个都道府县进入紧急状态，并于2020年4月16日宣布所有都道府县进入紧急状态。日本首相和省长要求人们采取自我克制的行为，包括在家工作和避免访问夜生活场所。然而，由于该等要求而导致的流动性改变在减少COVID-19传播方面的有效性几乎没有调查。本研究调查了日本东京、大坂和名古屋大都市区工作、夜生活和居住场所的流动性变化与COVID-19爆发的关联。首先，我们使用移动终端数据计算了工作场所、夜生活场所和住宅场所的每日移动性变化，并与疫情爆发前的移动性进行了比较。其次，利用广义最小二乘法估计了迁移率变化对再生数的敏感性。流动性变化已于二零二零年三月开始。然而，由于宣布进入紧急状态，夜生活场所的流动性下降尤其严重。虽然每种场所类型的流动性与COVID-19爆发有关，但夜生活场所的流动性变化与爆发的相关性比其他场所类型更显著。各大都市区的敏感程度存在区域差异。我们的研究结果表明，流动性变化，尤其是夜生活场所的流动性变化，在减少COVID-19爆发方面发挥了作用。
As the COVID-19 pandemic spread, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency on April 7, 2020 for seven prefectures, and on April 16, 2020 for all prefectures. The Japanese Prime Minister and governors requested people to adopt self-restraint behaviors, including working from home and refraining from visiting nightlife spots. However, the effectiveness of the mobility change due to such requests in reducing the spread of COVID-19 has been little investigated. The present study examined the association of the mobility change in working, nightlife, and residential places and the COVID-19 outbreaks in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolitan areas in Japan. First, we calculated the daily mobility change in working, nightlife, and residential places compared to the mobility before the outbreak using mobile device data. Second, we estimated the sensitivity of mobility changes to the reproduction number by generalized least squares. Mobility change had already started in March, 2020. However, mobility reduction in nightlife places was particularly significant due to the state of emergency declaration. Although the mobility in each place type was associated with the COVID-19 outbreak, the mobility changes in nightlife places were more significantly associated with the outbreak than those in the other place types. There were regional differences in intensity of sensitivity among each metropolitan area. Our findings indicated the effectiveness of the mobility changes, particularly in nightlife places, in reducing the outbreak of COVID-19.