Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information
Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2014.0016
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发表时间：
2015-02-19
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Freckleton, Robert P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jetz, Walter;Freckleton, Robert P.
由于缺乏数据，在对威胁状况进行全分类单元评估时，许多物种仍未包括在内。在这里，我们提出了一种新颖的空间系统发育统计框架，该框架使用一小组容易获得或可导出的特征，包括系统发育估算的体重和遥感人类入侵，为数据缺乏的物种提供威胁状态的初步基线预测。该方法应用于评估全球哺乳动物物种，可以有效识别受威胁物种并预测威胁的地理变化。对于 483 个数据缺乏的物种，模型预测威胁高度升高，其中 69% 的物种处于“危险”状态，而评估物种中这一比例为 22%。这导致 331 种额外的潜在受威胁哺乳动物，其中啮齿类动物、蝙蝠和鼩鼱以及哥伦比亚、苏拉威西岛和菲律宾等国家的保护重要性更高。这些发现证明了将系统发育和遥感数据与物种分布相结合以确定物种和受保护区域的未来潜力。
In taxon-wide assessments of threat status many species remain not included owing to lack of data. Here, we present a novel spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework that uses a small set of readily available or derivable characteristics, including phylogenetically imputed body mass and remotely sensed human encroachment, to provide initial baseline predictions of threat status for data-deficient species. Applied to assessed mammal species worldwide, the approach effectively identifies threatened species and predicts the geographical variation in threat. For the 483 data-deficient species, the models predict highly elevated threat, with 69% 'at-risk' species in this set, compared with 22% among assessed species. This results in 331 additional potentially threatened mammals, with elevated conservation importance in rodents, bats and shrews, and countries like Colombia, Sulawesi and the Philippines. These findings demonstrate the future potential for combining phylogenies and remotely sensed data with species distributions to identify species and regions of conservation concern.