Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change
Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Hallegatte, Stephane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hallegatte, Stephane
许多涉及长期投资的决策已经需要考虑气候变化。但这样做并不容易，至少有两个原因。首先，由于气候变化的速度，新的基础设施必须能够应对大范围的气候变化条件，这将使设计更加困难，建设成本更高。其次，未来气候的不确定性使得不可能直接使用单一气候模型的输出作为基础设施设计的输入，并且有充分的理由认为所需的气候信息不会很快获得。因此，未来的基础设施不应该基于模型预测的气候条件进行优化，而应该对气候条件的可能变化更加稳健。这一目标意味着气候信息的使用者也必须改变他们的实践和决策框架，例如，通过调整他们目前应用于汇率或研发成果的不确定性管理方法。研究了五种方法：(i)选择即使在没有气候变化的情况下也能产生效益的“不后悔”战略；（ii）支持可逆和灵活的选择；（iii）在新投资中购买“安全边际”；（四）促进软适应战略，包括长期前景；（五）缩短决策时间范围。此外，必须考虑到适应措施的消极和积极的副作用以及外部性。适应-缓解相互作用还要求对适应和缓解政策进行综合设计和评估，这些政策往往是由不同的社区制定的。(C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd版权所有。
Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) selecting "no-regret" strategies that yield benefits even in absence of climate change; (ii) favouring reversible and flexible options; (iii) buying "safety margins" in new investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective: and (v) reducing decision time horizons. Moreover, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities of adaptation measures. Adaptation-mitigation interactions also call for integrated design and assessment of adaptation and mitigation policies, which are often developed by distinct communities. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.