REAL—Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region
REAL—Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.375
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
U. Germann;M. Berenguer;D. Sempere‐Torres;M. Zappa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
U. Germann;M. Berenguer;D. Sempere‐Torres;M. Zappa
消除雷达降水估计中的残余误差的一个优雅的解决方案是生成降水场的集合。本文提出了一个雷达集合生成器，设计用于在阿尔卑斯山使用LU分解（REAL），并提出了第一个结果，从真实的实时实施耦合雷达集合与半分布式径流模型在陡峭的阿尔卑斯山流域山洪建模。每个成员的雷达合奏是一个可能的实现未知的真实降水场给定的观测雷达场和知识的空间-时间误差结构的雷达降水估计。将替代实现馈送到水文模型中会产生响应值的分布，其分布表示输入雷达降水场中径流对不确定性的敏感性。
An elegant solution to characterise the residual errors in radar precipitation estimates is to generate an ensemble of precipitation fields. The paper proposes a radar ensemble generator designed for usage in the Alps using LU decomposition (REAL), and presents first results from a real‐time implementation coupling the radar ensemble with a semi‐distributed rainfall–runoff model for flash flood modelling in a steep Alpine catchment. Each member of the radar ensemble is a possible realisation of the unknown true precipitation field given the observed radar field and knowledge of the space–time error structure of radar precipitation estimates. Feeding the alternative realisations into a hydrological model yields a distribution of response values, the spread of which represents the sensitivity of runoff to uncertainties in the input radar precipitation field.