Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System Developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency
Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System Developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency
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DOI：
10.1175/2009mwr2697.1
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发表时间：
2009-08
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
M. Yamaguchi;R. Sakai;Masayuki Kyoda;T. Komori;T. Kadowaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Yamaguchi;R. Sakai;Masayuki Kyoda;T. Komori;T. Kadowaki
介绍了日本气象厅的台风包围预报系统（TEPS）及其性能。2008年2月，日本气象厅开始了TEPS业务，旨在以确定性和概率性的方式提供熟练的热带气旋（TC）路径预测。TEPS包括1个非扰动预测和10个扰动预测，基于JMA全球谱模型（GSM; TL 959 L 60）的低分辨率版本（TL 319 L 60）和JMA/GSM的全球分析。采用奇异向量法产生初始扰动。TEPS以北太平洋西部和南海（0° ~ 60 ° N，100°E ~ 180°）热带气旋为中心，每天运行4次，分别在协调世界时0000、0600、1200和1800启动，预报范围为132小时。TEPS在2007年5月至12月的准运行期间的验证表明，集合平均轨道预测在统计上有更好的性能相比，控制（无扰动）的预测：误差...
Abstract The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (TEPS) and its performance are described. In February 2008, JMA started an operation of TEPS that was designed for providing skillful tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions in both deterministic and probabilistic ways. TEPS consists of 1 nonperturbed prediction and 10 perturbed predictions based on the lower-resolution version (TL319L60) of the JMA Global Spectral Model (GSM; TL959L60) and a global analysis for JMA/GSM. A singular vector method is employed to create initial perturbations. Focusing on TCs in the western North Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea (0°–60°N, 100°E–180°), TEPS runs 4 times a day, initiated at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC with a prediction range of 132 h. The verifications of TEPS during the quasi-operational period from May to December 2007 indicate that the ensemble mean track predictions statistically have better performance as compared with the control (nonperturbed) predictions: the error...