Prediction of readmission to acute psychiatric units
Prediction of readmission to acute psychiatric units
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DOI：
10.1007/s001270170049
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发表时间：
2001-06-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Boardman, AP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hodgson, RE;Lewis, M;Boardman, AP
背景已知有许多因素会影响精神科病房的再入院率，而再入院率已被建议作为质量的替代结果指标。法科尔纳回报被用来确定所有精神病入院急性病房在北斯塔福德郡，1987年至1993年的再入院率。预测变量来自Korner回归或从1991年人口普查数据中获得。生存分析技术被用来检查哪些变量预测再入院。结果如下：使用考克斯回归推导出预测模型，其以大于机会概率（X-2=48.5，df=4，P < 0.001）遵循观察到的数据。精神病诊断是最有影响力的预测再入院。结论：在考克斯回归模型中，住院时间不具有预测性，这表明患者不会提前出院。衍生的模型可能有价值的服务规划，审计和资源分配。
Background. Many factors are known to influence readmission to psychiatric wards, and readmission rates have been suggested as proxy outcome indicators of quality. Method. Korner returns were used to ascertain readmission rates for all psychiatric admissions to acute wards in North Staffordshire, 1987-1993. Predictor variables were derived from Korner returns or obtained from the 1991 Census data. Survival analysis techniques were used to examine which variables predicted readmission. Results: A predictive model was derived using Cox regression, which followed the observed data at greater than chance probability (X-2=48.5, df=4, P < 0.001). A psychotic diagnosis was the most influential predictor of readmission. Conclusion: Length of stay is not predictive in the Cox regression model, which suggests patients are not being prematurely discharged. The derived models may have value in service planning, audit and resource allocation.